by Ron Raskin
The world is changing, and pressure on the Western democratizes is increasing. Challenges from China, Russia, Iran, and others determined to compete for global resource distribution—by any means necessary, including open warfare—combined with Europe’s declining population and struggles with immigrant integration, all call for a new ideas and new approach. The only question is, what will that new way be?
The pressure from “Global South” and especially from “Axis of Evil” might either bring Western democratizes closer together or risk overwhelming them. The Western democracies already shares a lot: people in these nations have similar values, empathy circles, and their national interests often align well. Building even stronger bonds in both values and interests is essential for Western nations to unite. Now is the time for all Western nations—North America, Europe, Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, and Israel—to join forces and stand strong together.
Of course, the Western Supranational Union is a very challenging endeavor that raises many questions. Below, you can find some of these FAQs:
Is it realistic to expect all Western nations to form a New Supranational Union, or is it just a utopian idea?
Right now, it’s just a utopia—but every idea starts as a utopia, including the EU. It could take at least a generation to become reality, and no one knows if it ever will. But today’s circumstances are pushing in that direction. Why? Because all Western nations face external pressure, and better cooperation and coordination seem like the best way to handle it—at least in theory. Otherwise, why would any country give up part of its self-determination? If circumstances change, the future path could shift as well. For instance, instead of a single unified Western union, we might see several smaller, well aligned unions, such as the EU, a U.S.-Canada partnership, or groupings like Japan-Taiwan-South Korea, and so on. However, all of these would still be moving in the same direction.
How would the idea of a Western Supranational Union impact current geopolitical tensions?
The impact could be profound. A united and decisive Western alliance would shift the global balance of power. This would influence how other nations act in several ways:
- Deterrence: A strong and unified West would discourage aggression against its members, prompting some nations to seek alternative, more peaceful paths.
- Attraction: The success of such a union might encourage countries like Turkey, currently on the sidelines, to join. This would require aligning their values, interests, and priorities with the Western alliance.
In the long term, this shift could reshape geopolitics. Nationalism, where people primarily identify with their own countries, might give way to a broader sense of belonging—uniting people who share common values. This would foster greater unity, reduce conflicts, and allow more energy to be focused on shared challenges like climate change and scientific research.
How is the idea of a Western Supranational Union different from progressive ideas?
Progressive ideas are essentially updated versions of communist ideas. Instead of focusing only on class inequality within nations and spreading those ideas internationally (like the Comintern), progressives address inequality both between nations and within societies. While their intentions might be good, the outcomes—much like what we saw in the USSR and its satellite states—have often been disastrous.
Progressives advocate for multilateralism, envisioning a world where all nations work together, similar to Wilson’s dream of the League of Nations or the United Nations. The key difference is that Wilson’s vision prioritized spreading democracy worldwide, while progressives focus primarily on achieving equality.
This vision of multilateralism might have seemed promising 30 years ago, but it’s now clear that it hasn’t worked. Efforts to create a world government (UN), a global justice system (ICC), align economies (globalization), and unify identities (through migration and inclusion) have fallen short.
The Western Supranational Union offers a smaller, more practical alternative. It’s tailored to the current geopolitical landscape and progresses at a pace the world can realistically handle, abandoning the unrealistic idea of uniting all nations in one big leap. Even so, some argue that the Western Supranational Union might still be too ambitious.
What factors could influence the chances of forming a Western Supranational Union?
Bringing any group of people together to work effectively is always challenging—let alone uniting all Western democracies under one umbrella. However, history shows that social groups tend to grow over time: from tribes to towns, from towns to nations, and beyond. There’s even a relatively successful example in the European Union (though not without its critics).
Compared to the alternative—something like the United Nations, with its many failed attempts at creating a cohesive global confederation—the chances of building a Western Supranational Union seem more realistic.
Positive Factors
- Shared Values: Western democracies often share core principles, such as democracy, freedom of speech, and prioritizing technological progress to improve quality of life.
- External Threats: Ironically, external pressure from adversaries like the so-called “Axis of Evil” could push Western nations closer together, as they recognize the need for collective security and cooperation.
Negative Factors
- Diverging Strategies: While Western democracies share similar goals, they often have different views on how to achieve them. This can lead to endless debates and inefficiency.
- National Identity vs. Collective Identity: Many groups within Western countries hold strong nationalistic beliefs, often coupled with distrust or negative feelings toward other Western nations. These “narrow empathy circles” can act as a significant barrier to forming a unified union, even if such groups are in the minority.
- Lack of Awareness and Momentum: Currently, the idea of a Western Supranational Union lacks widespread awareness or political backing, which limits its chances of becoming a reality anytime soon.
How does the idea of a Western supranational union relate to the United Nations?
It’s becoming increasingly clear that the UN, along with its own institutions and other global organizations like the ICC, is not improving the world as intended. The original vision, inspired by Wilson’s ideas from 1918, aimed to create a global confederation of nations working together for peace. While this seemed achievable 30 years ago, it has become evident today that this vision has failed.
The attempt to establish a world government (UN), a global justice system (ICJ, ICC), align economic interests (globalization), and promote a shared identity based on Western values (through migration) has not succeeded. Worse, nations and groups like Iran and Hamas have not only rejected these values but have used them against the West.
The Western Supranational Union offers a smaller, more focused alternative to the UN, aiming to address governance, human rights, and justice within a like-minded group of nations that already share the same values, economic interests, and, in many cases, political goals. Meanwhile, areas that affect everyone, like culture and climate change, could still be managed under the UN’s framework to ensure global cooperation.
How does the idea of a Western supranational union relate to Russia?
Russia is a European nation with values similar to other European countries. However, it failed to build a successful democracy, and under Putin’s leadership, it has moved away from the West. While many Russians disagree with this direction, they remain silent.
In the long term, even Putin likely knows that Russia will never truly align with China or Iran—their long-term interests are too different. Their current partnership is only based on shared opposition to the West: “the enemy of my enemy is my friend.” History shows that nations with similar values and cultures tend to cooperate more.
It may take a generation for Russia to reconsider its direction, perhaps 40 years to “wander in the desert” and recover from the chaos of the 1990s. A strong and prosperous West can inspire Russians to rethink their path, much like in the 1980s when the success of the U.S. raised doubts within the USSR about their chosen course. A Western Supranational Union could play a crucial role in encouraging Russia to change.
Will the Western Supranational Union be good news or bad news to Israel?
In recent years, all Western democracies have faced increasing pressure and threats from adversarial forces often referred to as the “Axis of Evil.” This situation clearly calls for greater unity among Western democracies. Let’s call this potential alliance the Western Supranational Union.
Such a union could include most or all Western democracies, including countries like the United States, the European Union, Australia, Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, and Israel. The structure of this union could vary significantly. For example, it could take the form of something loose, like an expanded NATO, a relatively loose confederation, or a stronger federation. The impact of such a union on Israel would vary depending on the structure.
Today, many Western countries try to distance themselves from Israel, fearing it could complicate their economic and military ties with Sunni Arab nations. On the other hand, Israel is cautious about joining such an alliance, as it worries this might lead to unacceptable compromises on its national security and sovereignty.
From Israel’s perspective, any such union would need to fully commit to protecting all its members equally. If this condition is met, the benefits for Israel could be substantial. It would allow Israel to take more calculated risks in its conflicts with Iranian proxies or in peace processes with the Palestinians. For instance, Israel might feel more confident in being able to enforce ceasefire agreements with Hezbollah or advancing a risky two-state solution, knowing it has the backing of a unified Western alliance in any confrontation. Additionally, the deterrent effect of a strong Western alliance would itself significantly enhance Israel’s security.
For Western democracies, such a union could also be a strategic opportunity to reduce tensions in the Middle East by supporting a two-state solution, coupled with credible security guarantees for Israel. However, achieving such goals would require a long-term commitment and coordinated efforts by all member states to move in this direction with determination.