by Ron Raskin
As more and more people outside Israel call for an immediate ceasefire, and debates inside Israel heat up as well, it’s time to lay out all the options for ending the war in Gaza — and consider what each one really means
There are basically 4 main ways this war could end:
- Israel pulls out of Gaza completely, including the Philadelphia corridor, and builds a new defense line outside of it. The only “nice” thing about this option is that it’s easy to achieve. Hamas seems ready to trade Israeli hostages for international promises that Israel won’t interfere while Hamas rebuilds it military capabilities over the next few years. The catch? The war will probably start again once Hamas feels ready. So, calling it a ‘ceasefire’ is actually pretty accurate — because it’s definitely not the ‘end of the war’. There are some versions of this idea, like Yair Lapid’s smart-sounding but unrealistic Egyptian Solution plan. First, it’s hard to imagine Egypt being willing to take on that responsibility. Second, taking real control of Gaza from Hamas — not just paying lip service to it — would be a huge challenge. And third, it’s unlikely that Israel would fully trust Egypt to act in the best interests of both Palestinian prosperity and Israeli security.
- Israel pulls out of most of Gaza but stays in the Philadelphia corridor and maybe some other key points, using precise airstrikes when needed—kind of like how things work with Lebanon. This could also be done fairly easily, except for one problem: the hostages. Many Israelis think no agreement can stop Israel from acting when needed, like in Lebanon. But Lebanon and Gaza are very different situations. In Lebanon, Hezbollah faces internal pressures and the ceasefire agreement allows Israel to act against Hezbollah buildup. It’s unclear if Hamas would ever agree to a similar deal. So far, no hostage deal includes that kind of option.
- Israel pulls out of most of Gaza but stays in key areas and reserves the right to do ground raids, similar to how things work in Judea and Samaria. Again, the hostages are the big issue here—Hamas is unlikely to return them if Israel keeps this option on the table. Could more military pressure change that? Maybe, but it’s hard to say.
- Total victory, where Hamas loses control of Gaza. This could go two ways:
- Hamas gives up political control but keeps military power, similar to Hezbollah. It’s the kind of ‘total victory’ that looks good on paper but leaves Hamas’ military power to it. This would come with a big political deal where Arab countries (a.k.a. Saudi Arabia) recognize Israel and Western countries recognize Palestine. This is basically the French-Saudi idea, which is also close to what the Biden administration suggested a year ago. It sounds nice but doesn’t really solve anything. Hamas would hope to rebuild and take over again in 5–10 years, while Israel and the West would hope Palestinians turn away from Hamas and the peace prevail in the Middle East. Well, Israel already had peace with Iran, and has peace with Turkey and Egypt (still) — so the real question is: how much is that peace actually worth? To sum it up: it’s a nice plan, but it limits Israel’s options for solving the conflict in ways other than the traditional “two-state solution.” And history shows us that, unfortunately, this plan carries a high risk of failure — especially given the growing strength of Islamic fundamentalism and the declining strength of the West and puts this risk on Israel. In essence, it’s a gamble that would require Israel to raise its stakes in the game. With all due respect to French cuisine — Israel seems to have little appetite for that kind of gamble anymore – especially after the painful lessons of the Oslo Accords and the Gaza withdrawal. Unless Europe is ready to share the risk… for instance by granting Israel membership in NATO while allowing it to retain full freedom to act in its own security interests.
- Hamas is fully defeated and someone else (like Saudis, Egyptians, or a new Palestinian government) takes control of Gaza. But after 20 months of fighting without this happening, it’s hard to see it working anytime soon. Maybe distributing food and Israel arming Gaza clans is the last chance for such a victory — with Hamas activists being dragged through the streets by Palestinians, much like what happened during Saddam Hussein’s fall, and all hostages released. Of course, it’s always easier to tell your children a nice story so they can go to sleep with sweet dreams but reality is different…
So, when you look at all the options, only the first one (full Israeli withdrawal) is really on the table right now. It’s easy to achieve, but also the worst outcome for Israel. The other options? Either Hamas won’t accept them, or Israel won’t.
What will happen in the end? As Donald Trump likes to say: We’ll see, we’ll see…